Collingwood v Essendon (3:20pm AEST)
Essendon Line +21.5 ($1.91)

The last two weeks we’ve made money betting against the Pies, when they’ve started warm favourite and lost comfortably both times.

And yet here they are as warm favourite again. It’s never a bad thing to keep betting against a team in bad form, particularly when they continue to be short. Collingwood are lost at sea, unable to stop the game from being played on opposition terms. Essendon have been playing a controlled brand of football, and will set themselves for a winnable match.

Watch for them to bring the pressure early. The Bombers best two performances this season have been at the MCG, with the bigger ground helping their possession game. They should be in it for a long way again.