A day after online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au paid out bets early on the winner of Saturday’s NSW State election, the bookie has released the betting story of the election which ended in that ballsy move.
It’s been a roller coaster of events that eventually led to the decision to put close to $50,000 back into punters pocket four days before a sausage sizzled anywhere in the State:
NSW State Election Key Betting Dates
May 22nd 2012 – Sportsbet Opens Betting
With Barry O’Farrell at the helm, the Coalition got off to a flyer! They were priced at $1.10 with just under three years until polling and everything was looking so Rosé! John Robertson had a mountain to climb even then as the $6.00 outsider.
Oct 19th 2013 – Labor Miracle in Miranda by-election
Labor’s Barry Collier returns to State Parliament on the back of a 27% swing in the Miranda by-election – the largest swing ever recorded at a New South Wales by-election. Labor firm from $5.00 into $3.10 as a result and the Coalition stumble from $1.14 out to $1.30.
Dec 5th 2013 – Cracks appear in the O’Farrell Wine Glass
The resignation of Chris Hartcher results in another front bench reshuffle for Barry O’Farrell and again Labor gain momentum, mobbing from $3.10 into $2.85 with the Coalition drifting from $1.30 out to $1.40.
16th April 2014 – Barry Bows Out
Barry O’Farrell resigns and Labor are the big winners as their odds to win reaches the shortest price to date they’ve been (and ever will be for that matter) at $2.50. The Coalition drift to their largest price to date of $1.50.
17th April 2014 – Enter Magic Mike
The Coalition elects Mike Baird to replace O’Farrell and immediately the charismatic character sees his party’s chances to win the election improve, moving from $1.50 into $1.33 with Labor drifting again to $3.00 from $2.50.
17th June 2014 – Baird’s Big-Building Budget Boosts Election Hopes
Treasurer Andrew Constance announces an ambitious budget with a plan for surplus in 2015-16, again another positive move viewed by punters, the Coalition now into $1.25 with Labor out to $4.00.
22nd December 2014 – Black Christmas for Labor as Robertson Resigns
John Robertson resigns just three months before the election and the party falls out to $8.00 in the betting and will finish the year on $9.00. Mike Baird is smiling like a Cheshire cat as the Coalition firm into $1.06 to end the year at $1.05.
19th January 2015 – Luke Lands Leadership
Two weeks since Luke Foley replaced Roberston, punters have their doubts as Labor drift from $9.00 out to $12 – their largest price to date. The Coalition firm to $1.03 which is noted as their shortest price in the campaign.
23rd February 2015 – Federal Frolics Unsettle Standings
A month of unrest in the Liberal Federal party with spill motions and what not, the Coalition drift in NSW out to $1.09 with Labor closing the gap to $8.00.
24th March 2015 – Sportsbet Pays Out 4 Days Before Polling
With punters backing the Coalition from $1.09 into $1.05 in recent weeks, Sportsbet decides to not make them wait for their inevitable winnings and pays out close to $50,000 to thousands of customers early on a Coalition victory.
25th March 2015 – Coalition once again Firm in Election Betting
Sportsbet reigns in the Coalition’s price, now standing at $1.04 with Labor pushed out to double digits at $10.
Bets of Notice
Ø One punter has placed $12,300 on the Coalition at prices ranging from $1.05 to $1.08 in the last month.
Ø After Sportsbet paid out, one punter placed $8,500 while another placed $8,223 at odds of $1.05 on the Coalition.
Ø Largest bets on Labor have been $1,700 at odds of $7.00 (in Feb) and $500 at odds of $12 back in January this year.
Ø The hotly contested seat of Strathfield had one punter part with $1,000 on the ALP at $1.50.
Ø The largest bet on a hung parliament has been $5,000 at odds of $1.15 that there won’t be – that price now $1.07.
Ø In Balmain one punter placed $600 at odds of $1.40 for Labor to win the seat.
Ø While in the best backed seat of Monaro, there’s been four bets of $300 bets – two on ALP at $1.50 and two on the Coalition at $2.50.
“We’ve seen one hell of a drama unfold in the betting over the past three years. The Coalition have gone from certainties to then have their backs against the wall, to finally getting back to where they began. As a result, we paid out early before the fat lady even took the stage!” said sportsbet.com.au’s Will Byrne.
Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au
2015 NSW State Election Winner
(prices in brackets from 24th March)
$1.04 Coalition (in from $1.05)
$10 Labor (out from $9.50)